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Saturday, October 31, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?

Moved up 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.573%Confirmed move

Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.028%Confirmed move

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?

Moved down 6.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.24%Confirmed move

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Moved up 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+16.034%Confirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.028%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will BTC hit $70,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+1.551%Likely noise

AnyPS5 reaches 100% in October?

Moved down 50.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-50.14%Likely noise

Will bitcoin reach 81000 by 10/31/2026 11:59pm

Moved down 33.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-33.98%Likely noise

Settled (33 in 24h)

Will anyone pitch me a market my own order checks let me buy? [Convince the Machine #22]Manifoldyes
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?Polymarketno
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Polymarketno
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?Polymarketno
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?Polymarketno
Will Lucy Martinez travel to Thailand before October 31, 2026?Manifoldno
[Lean] Will someone solve square_even_of_even by 2026-10-31?Manifoldyes
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Polymarketno

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.