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Friday, October 30, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 16.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 49.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 41.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 23.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (16 in 24h)
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Polymarketno
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 24?Polymarketyes
- Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?Polymarketyes
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?Polymarketyes
- Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 26-November 1?Polymarketyes
- Interim Coin FlipManifoldyes
- Daily CoinflipManifoldyes
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.