Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Thursday, October 29, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 55.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 18.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 31.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (66 in 24h)
- Will Paris-Montsouris record at least 1 mm of rain on Wednesday, October 28, 2026?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?Polymarketno
- 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?Manifoldno
- 🇺🇸📉 Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its October 2026 meeting?Manifoldno
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarketno
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarketno
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.