Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
96.8 mana
Total volume
3K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 2:22 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 6.5% (down from 7.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 96.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
6.5%
−0.5 percentage points
over 24 hours7.0% → 6.5%
Resolving soonNot live — snapshot Oct 27, 2:22 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (1.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
29%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
19
Trades
35
over 11 days
Largest order
100 mana
844.8 mana traded across these 35 trades (last 11 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$844.8 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolve YES if the Federal Open Market Committee increases the target range for the federal funds rate at its October 27–28, 2026 meeting relative to the target range in effect immediately before the meeting. Resolve NO if the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged or lowers it.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolve YES if the Federal Open Market Committee increases the target range for the federal funds rate at its October 27–28, 2026 meeting relative to the target range in effect immediately before the meeting. Resolve NO if the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged or lowers it. Resolution will be based on the first official Federal Reserve monetary policy statement issued for the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. The size of the increase does not matter. Any increase in the target range counts as YES. Changes to forward guidance, the balance sheet, quantitative tightening, Treasury operations, or any other policy measure do not count unless the target range for the federal funds rate is also increased. If the September FOMC decision is delayed beyond the market’s scheduled closing time, the market will remain closed to trading but unresolved until the Federal Reserve publishes the official decision, at which point it will resolve based on that decision
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 27, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 27, 3:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Resolving soon
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
1Low
Where the price path tends to go next495 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~28h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-1.924H-0.57D-0.5
Related markets
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 84
Polymarket$272.3K 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
7%YESTrust 82
Polymarket$1.3M 24h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
94%YESTrust 93
Polymarket$3.6M 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 94
Polymarket$1.4M 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 93
Polymarket$1.1M 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
1%YESTrust 67
Polymarket$38.6K 24h