Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
4.7K mana
Total volume
4.7K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Bitcoin 100k before Election day?
As of Oct 12, 2026, 3:09 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 3.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 4.7K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
3.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
96%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
8
over 1h
Largest order
2.5K mana
4.7K mana traded across these 8 trades (last 1h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$4.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 3:13 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Quote-driven
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
- Little executed flow — price is quote-driven, not trade-driven
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
27Low
Where the price path tends to go next1231 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~19h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
4.7K mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
4.7K mana
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 3.0%
- 7-day range
- 3.0% – 3.3%
- Resolves
- Nov 2, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.224H-0.27D-0.2
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