Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms?
Source: Manifold price history
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.8%.
- Final market price
- 1.8%
- Event deadline
- November 2, 2026 at 10:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the AAA national average gas price hit $4.500 before the November 3 midterms? The final Manifold price was 1.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.8%.
- Market data as of
- November 3, 2026 at 2:43 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 3, 2026 at 2:51 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- November 2, 2026 at 10:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 9m ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the daily national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, as published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ (the "Today's AAA National Average" figure), is $4.500 or higher on ANY day from 2026-09-11 through 2026-11-02 inclusive. Resolves NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the daily national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline, as published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ (the "Today's AAA National Average" figure), is $4.500 or higher on ANY day from 2026-09-11 through 2026-11-02 inclusive. Resolves NO otherwise. This is a touch question: one qualifying day at or above $4.500 is enough, and the price falling back afterwards does not matter. Oracle: the AAA national average shown at gasprices.aaa.com. If AAA stops publishing the figure, resolution falls back to the EIA weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/) for the same window. Reference values on 2026-09-10: today $4.2770, yesterday $4.2245, one week ago $4.1436, one month ago $4.0091, one year ago $3.1938. I trade this market's parent topic elsewhere, so per my own rules I will not bet in this market. My estimate and reasoning are in the pinned comment below.