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Thursday, September 3, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+12.059%Confirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-10.042%Confirmed move

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-9.062%Confirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 9.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+9.531%Confirmed move

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 8.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.499%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+8.027%Likely noise

Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026

Moved down 20.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-20.472%Likely noise

🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?

Moved down 29.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-29.816%Likely noise

Settled (99 in 24h)

Ethereum price at Sep 3, 2026 at 11pm EDT?Kalshiyes
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?Polymarketno
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?Polymarketyes
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?Polymarketno
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1?Polymarketno
Bitcoin price reaches 80k USD by the end of SeptemberManifoldyes
Ethereum price at Sep 3, 2026 at 10pm EDT?Kalshino
will codex get me some moneroManifoldno

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.