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Thursday, September 3, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 75.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 64.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (146 in 24h)
- Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 on the last trading day of August 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?Manifoldno
- will i get lost on my first day of schoolManifoldno
- Will Ed Markey get at least 60% of the vote in the Massachusetts Senate Primary (Democratic)?Manifoldyes
- Will Tesla publicly unveil the next generation Roadster on or before August 31, 2026?Manifoldno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.