ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Tuesday, September 1, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Moved down 7.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-7.578%Confirmed move
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-8.069%Confirmed move
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.510%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.041%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.06%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Ed Markey get at least 60% of the vote in the Massachusetts Senate Primary (Democratic)?

Moved up 35.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+35.686%Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in September 2026?

Moved up 18.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+18.582%Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in September 2026?

Moved up 38.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+38.085%Likely noise

Settled (125 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.