Prediction Markets Daily Read — Tuesday, September 1, 2026 | ProbCast

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Hot Markets

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 1?83%▲12.5 Bitcoin Up or Down on September 1?59%▲14.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?43%▼5.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?56%▲5.0 Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?17%▼0.8 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 1?9%▲1.0 Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?87%▲7.0 Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on September 1st?4%▼7.6 Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?32%▼6.0 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?9%▼4.5 At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?38%▼12.2 Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initial runs?56%▲24.3 Will Trump attempt to rename an ocean by the end of his term?15%▼19.1 Will this market's probability ever drop below 30% before it closes?97%▲33.8 Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?3%▼31.1 Will apple change Lake Ontario to lake America anywhere in the world?96%▲22.1

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 1?83%▲12.5 Bitcoin Up or Down on September 1?59%▲14.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?43%▼5.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?56%▲5.0 Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?17%▼0.8 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 1?9%▲1.0 Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?87%▲7.0 Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on September 1st?4%▼7.6 Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?32%▼6.0 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?9%▼4.5 At the end of August 2028, will California be in a widespread drought?38%▼12.2 Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initial runs?56%▲24.3 Will Trump attempt to rename an ocean by the end of his term?15%▼19.1 Will this market's probability ever drop below 30% before it closes?97%▲33.8 Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?3%▼31.1 Will apple change Lake Ontario to lake America anywhere in the world?96%▲22.1

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.056%Confirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.043%Confirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.019%Confirmed move

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.071%Confirmed move

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.071%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?

Moved up 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+6.586%Likely noise

Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?

Moved down 31.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-31.13%Likely noise

Will apple change Lake Ontario to lake America anywhere in the world?

Moved up 38.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+38.996%Likely noise

Settled (126 in 24h)

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Polymarketno
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Polymarketno
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Polymarketno
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?Polymarketno
Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH more than 210.30 USDC on Base by the end of AugustManifoldno

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Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Polymarketno

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Polymarketno

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Polymarketno

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