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Friday, August 28, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+15.046%Confirmed move

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-15.054%Confirmed move

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Moved down 2.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.218%Confirmed move

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?

Moved down 16.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-16.32%Confirmed move

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+9.067%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Ethereum price at Aug 29, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 22.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+22.071%Likely noise

Will I beat an extreme demon by the end of this school year?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+8.058%Likely noise

Ethereum price at Aug 29, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Moved up 13.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+13.559%Likely noise

Settled (52 in 24h)

Will the S&P 500 close above 7,700 on Friday?Manifoldyes
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?Polymarketyes
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 10 and 15 million views on day 1?Polymarketno
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?Polymarketno
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Polymarketno
Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)Polymarketno
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Polymarketno
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Polymarketyes

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.