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Home/Macro / Fed/Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 12m ago

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?

Market probability
0.5%
−1 percentage point
over 24 hours1.6% → 0.5%
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: August 28, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

Confirmed repricing; the market has settled at the new level.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$1.9K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look video gets in the first 24 hours after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look video gets in the first 24 hours after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games' YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@RockstarGames), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to "Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look" (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJbzMqJGH4k)

Resolution source: youtube.com

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 28, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (youtube.com)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 28, 8:24 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±13 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: meaningful

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

Market data

Change (pts)1H-0.26H-1.024H-1.07D-1.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

63/ 100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.

Settlement-stage — price is pinned near resolution. Read it as a settlement signal, not a fresh forecast.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement26

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
32Low
Where the price path tends to go next368 observed
  • Stable consensus94%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting3%
  • Trend continuation2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

24h volume

$159K

Liquidity

$72.4K

Total volume

$0

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
0.5%
Best ask
0.6%
7-day range
0.5% – 1.6%
Resolves
Aug 28, 2026
Resolution
youtube.com

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity84

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

63/100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.

  • Liquidity anchor+59
  • Price steadiness+22
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score63 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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