Will the S&P 500 close above 7,700 on Friday?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the S&P 500 close above 7,700 on Friday? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 31, 2026 at 8:33 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 12, 2026 at 7:17 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 41d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) daily closing value is strictly greater than 7,700.00 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) daily closing value is strictly greater than 7,700.00 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. Source of Truth: The closing price as reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, which can be verified on Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) or Google Finance (.INX). Timing: The market will resolve after the official closing price is published following the market close at 4:00 PM ET on Friday, August 28, 2026. Market Closures: If the US stock market is unexpectedly closed on Friday, August 28, 2026, the closing price of the most recent active trading day prior to August 28, 2026, will be used for resolution. Background The S&P 500 closed at 7,674.37 on Friday, August 21, 2026, remaining in a tight trading range just below the 7,700 mark. The upcoming trading week features notable macroeconomic catalysts, most prominently the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole keynote address scheduled for Friday, August 28, 2026, which is expected to drive market volatility. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Market data
24h volume
1.4K mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
1.6K mana
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 99.0%
- Resolves
- Aug 28, 2026