Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look video gets in the first 24 hours after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look video gets in the first 24 hours after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games' YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@RockstarGames), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to "Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look" (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJbzMqJGH4k)
Resolution source: youtube.com
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 28, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (youtube.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 28, 3:14 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.