Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Thursday, August 27, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 18.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (27 in 24h)
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 27?Polymarketno
- [Short Fuse] Will Bitcoin increase from August 26 to 27?Manifoldyes
- Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on August 27?Polymarketyes
- Bitcoin Up or Down on August 27?Polymarketyes
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Polymarketno
- Will my wife get a job offer?Manifoldno
- Will Trump actually rename Lake Ontario to something more “American” before January 1?Manifoldyes
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on August 27?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.