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Thursday, August 27, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 26.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 10.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 26.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (27 in 24h)
- Daily CoinflipManifoldyes
- Will my company make a sale today?Manifoldno
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Polymarketyes
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on August 26?Polymarketno
- Will Captain Sauce upload a video this week?Manifoldyes
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.