Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- August 30, 2026 at 11:08 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 1, 2026 at 5:02 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 25, 2026 at 12:47 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 30, 2026 at 11:08 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 54d ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google Maps displays "Lake America," "Lake of America" or similar as the label for the body of water currently known as the "Lake Ontario" for the majority of users within the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google Maps displays "Lake America," "Lake of America" or similar as the label for the body of water currently known as the "Lake Ontario" for the majority of users within the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Changes which appear only in experimental features, beta versions, or subnational regional variants, will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If both "Lake America" and "Lake Ontario" are used to label the body of water, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be Google Maps (maps.google.com) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.