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Home/Macro / Fed/Will "Oasis: Don’t Look Back In Anger" earn more than $22M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their openi
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 8m ago

Will "Oasis: Don’t Look Back In Anger" earn more than $22M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their openi

Market probability
47.0%
−3 percentage points
over 24 hours50.0% → 47.0%
18 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 15, 2026 at 8:06 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume. The probability moved another 3.2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 3.2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$26.3 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 3.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% → 47.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 15, 2026 at 8:06 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 27, 10:33 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±33 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ62.7

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ0

Category
Macro / Fed
Change (pts)1H+3.26H-3.024H-3.07D-3.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

2/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement84

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity51

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next734 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
47.0%
7-day range
43.8% – 50.0%
Resolves
Sep 15, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

2/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+36
  • Price steadiness+5
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score2 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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