ProbCastOdds Reliability

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Saturday, August 22, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?

Moved down 26.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-26.155%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?

Moved down 17.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-17.232%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?

Moved down 10.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-10.817%Confirmed move
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+6.092%Confirmed move
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.068%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Bitcoin Up or Down on August 23?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-4.042%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Aug 23, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 38.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+38.057%Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?

Moved up 21.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+21.531%Likely noise

Settled (20 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.