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Saturday, August 22, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 26.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 17.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 38.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 21.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (20 in 24h)
- Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 1, 2026?Manifoldyes
- NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Polymarketyes
- Will SPY close above $776.34 on Friday, August 21, 2026?Manifoldno
- Will Daniel livestream before September 1, 2026Manifoldyes
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.