Will SPY close above $776.34 on Friday, August 21, 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Final market price
- 1.0%
- Event deadline
- August 21, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will SPY close above $776.34 on Friday, August 21, 2026? The final Manifold price was 1.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 24, 2026 at 4:02 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 3, 2026 at 5:37 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 21, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 40d ago
What this market actually measures
Based on Yahoo Finance Resolution criteria This market will resolve YES if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closes at a price strictly greater than $776.34 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Based on Yahoo Finance Resolution criteria This market will resolve YES if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closes at a price strictly greater than $776.34 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve NO. The reference price is SPY's closing price on Friday, August 14, 2026: $776.34, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The resolution price will also use Yahoo Finance. If the market is closed on August 21, 2026, or if no trade occurs that day, the market will resolve using the closing price of the next available trading day.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ855.1
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ1.9K
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 1.0%
- Resolves
- Aug 21, 2026