PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 46d ago

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?

Final price
100.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.

Final market price
100.0%
Event deadline
August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
100.0%
Probability seven days before event deadline
100.0%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.

Market data as of
August 22, 2026 at 8:39 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
October 7, 2026 at 9:23 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
46d ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

Market data

24h volume

$48.7K

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$485.6K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.9%
Best ask
100.0%
Resolves
Aug 31, 2026

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