ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?59%▲42.6NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?5%▼29.2Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?35%▲26.8Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?19%▲13.8Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?85%▲25.0Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in August?74%▲32.2NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?26%▼21.5Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?26%▲0.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?56%▼1.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?25%▲2.0Fed rate hike in 2026?56%▲7.0Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?27%▼8.0Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?26%▲10.5Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?29%▲12.8Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?8%▼8.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?28%▲2.0
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?59%▲42.6NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?5%▼29.2Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?35%▲26.8Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?19%▲13.8Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?85%▲25.0Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in August?74%▲32.2NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?26%▼21.5Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?26%▲0.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?56%▼1.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?25%▲2.0Fed rate hike in 2026?56%▲7.0Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?27%▼8.0Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?26%▲10.5Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?29%▲12.8Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?8%▼8.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?28%▲2.0
Home/Geopolitics/NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 7m ago

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?

Market probability
100.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
10 days until the event deadline
Deadline: August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$123.9K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 21, 4:27 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±8 pts.

Trading normallyLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Trading normally

Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

83/ 100 · High

Well-supported — liquid, fresh, and steady. Treat this number as reliable.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity87

Related markets

NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?

5%YESTrust 67
Polymarket$602.6K 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

0%YESTrust 92
Polymarket$256.3K 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

96%YESTrust 66
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
65Medium
Where the price path tends to go next275 observed
  • Stable consensus90%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting5%
  • Trend continuation3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$90.7K

Liquidity

$1.4M

Total volume

$245.9K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.9%
Best ask
100.0%
7-day range
100.0% – 100.0%
Resolves
Aug 31, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

83/100 · High

Well-supported — liquid, fresh, and steady. Treat this number as reliable.

  • Liquidity anchor+61
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Limited history-8
Trust score83 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket$26.7K 24h

🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

15%YESTrust 2
ManifoldṀ0 24h

Will Bitcoin be higher 14 days from now?

88%YESTrust 6
ManifoldṀ1.5K 24h

Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in August?

6%YESTrust 48
ManifoldṀ350.4 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]