Prediction Markets Daily Read — Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | ProbCast

ProbCastOdds Reliability

Today Top Movers Markets What Changed Accuracy Watchlist

⌘K

Checking…

Hot Markets

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?27%▼15.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?28%▼12.0 Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?44%▲35.1 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?37%▼6.0 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?65%▼6.0 Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?56%▼2.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?59%▼13.1 Will the existence of a non-MF group be proved this month?71%▼26.6 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?45%▲14.5 "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?21%▼24.1 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?33%▲8.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?28%▲4.0 Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?1%▼5.7 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?52%▼9.0 Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?88%▲58.0 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?46%▼0.2

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?27%▼15.0 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?28%▼12.0 Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?44%▲35.1 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?37%▼6.0 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?65%▼6.0 Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?56%▼2.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?59%▼13.1 Will the existence of a non-MF group be proved this month?71%▼26.6 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?45%▲14.5 "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?21%▼24.1 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?33%▲8.5 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?28%▲4.0 Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?1%▼5.7 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?52%▼9.0 Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?88%▲58.0 Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?46%▼0.2

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Moved down 14.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-14.527%Confirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved down 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-13.028%Confirmed move

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.037%Confirmed move

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.028%Confirmed move

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 6.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.772%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

Moved up 33.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+33.943%Likely noise

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?

Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-1.556%Likely noise

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?

Moved down 24.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-24.121%Likely noise

Settled (139 in 24h)

Will the Chicago White Sox defeat the Chicago Cubs during their game on August 17, 2026?Manifoldno
Will Trump announce or order a new U.S. military strike against Iran before August 18th, 2026?Manifoldno
Ethereum price at Aug 17, 2026 at 7pm EDT?Kalshino
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?Polymarketyes
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 17?Polymarketyes

← 2026-08-17 Today

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram

Today Top Movers Events All Markets What Changed Venue Divergence Polymarket vs Kalshi Methodology Coverage Meta's Arena Watchlist Terms of Use Privacy Crypto

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 17?Polymarketno

Ethereum price at Aug 17, 2026 at 6pm EDT?Kalshino

Ethereum price at Aug 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?Kalshino

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]