ProbCastOdds Reliability

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Tuesday, August 18, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Moved up 13.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+13.5100%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.07%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.033%Confirmed move
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.012%Confirmed move
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Moved down 2.6 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.620%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will James Fishback get second in the Florida Republican primary for governor?

Moved down 26.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-26.01%Likely noise
Will Byron Donalds get 50.000% or more of the vote in the Florida Republican Primary for Governor?

Moved down 81.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-81.85%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Aug 19, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+30.051%Likely noise

Settled (34 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.