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Friday, August 7, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 33.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 14.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 42.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (31 in 24h)
- Ethereum price at Aug 7, 2026 at 10pm EDT?Kalshiyes
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin be higher by close on Friday?Manifoldyes
- Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?Polymarketyes
- Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?Polymarketno
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7?Polymarketyes
- Do you like 74% odds?Manifoldyes
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.