Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Friday, August 7, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 21.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 72.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 33.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (26 in 24h)
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 6?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on August 6?Polymarketno
- Andy Ogles TN-05 Republican nominee?Manifoldno
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.