Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Thursday, August 6, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 12.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.4 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 78.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 35.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (28 in 24h)
- Andy Ogles TN-05 Republican nominee?Manifoldno
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin close daily candle above $66,000 on August 6?Manifoldno
- S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 6?Polymarketno
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?Polymarketno
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Polymarketyes
- Will Vinicius Junior sign for Arsenal?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.