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Thursday, August 6, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 9.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 36.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 62.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 21.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (42 in 24h)
- Will ACR launch the next challenge before 8pm pstManifoldno
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on August 5?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on August 5?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.