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Monday, August 3, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 12.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 37.1 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 28.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (48 in 24h)
- Will the Fed cut interest rates at the next FOMC meeting (July/Sept 2026)?Manifoldno
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?Polymarketyes
- Will Mitch McConnell make a verifiable, live public appearance before August 3, 2026?Manifoldno
- S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?Polymarketyes
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3?Polymarketyes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Polymarketyes
- Spread: IK Sirius (-1.5)Polymarketyes
- Ethereum price at Aug 3, 2026 at 2pm EDT?Kalshino
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.