Will Mitch McConnell make a verifiable, live public appearance before August 3, 2026?

This market resolves YES if Mitch McConnell makes a live public appearance, or appears in clearly same-day public video, before August 3, 2026. Deadline: August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count, the appearance must be independently verifiable through a source such as C-SPAN, a Senate livestream, live TV, a public Senate proceeding, or footage/reporting from a major news organization. It does not count if the only evidence is released by McConnell’s campaign, Senate office, family, allies, or personal/social media accounts. Written statements, private calls, old footage, undated photos/videos, and claims that he is “working” or “recovering” without public visual evidence also do not count. This market resolves NO if the deadline passes without a qualifying appearance. — Why August 3: Kentucky changed its U.S. Senate vacancy law in 2024. The governor can no longer appoint an interim senator; vacancies are filled by special election. Recent reporting suggests August 3 may be a key cutoff: a vacancy before then could trigger a separate special-election process, while a vacancy on or after then may effectively be folded into the regular November election. (The law is new and the exact process could be contested.)