Will Mitch McConnell make a verifiable, live public appearance before August 3, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Final market price
- 1.0%
- Event deadline
- August 3, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Mitch McConnell make a verifiable, live public appearance before August 3, 2026? The final Manifold price was 1.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 6, 2026 at 7:35 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 2, 2026 at 7:04 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 3, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 88d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if Mitch McConnell makes a live public appearance, or appears in clearly same-day public video, before August 3, 2026. Deadline: August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if Mitch McConnell makes a live public appearance, or appears in clearly same-day public video, before August 3, 2026. Deadline: August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count, the appearance must be independently verifiable through a source such as C-SPAN, a Senate livestream, live TV, a public Senate proceeding, or footage/reporting from a major news organization. It does not count if the only evidence is released by McConnell’s campaign, Senate office, family, allies, or personal/social media accounts. Written statements, private calls, old footage, undated photos/videos, and claims that he is “working” or “recovering” without public visual evidence also do not count. This market resolves NO if the deadline passes without a qualifying appearance. — Why August 3: Kentucky changed its U.S. Senate vacancy law in 2024. The governor can no longer appoint an interim senator; vacancies are filled by special election. Recent reporting suggests August 3 may be a key cutoff: a vacancy before then could trigger a separate special-election process, while a vacancy on or after then may effectively be folded into the regular November election. (The law is new and the exact process could be contested.)