ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?14%▼32.0Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?67%▲7.6Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?18%▼12.3Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?86%▲0.6Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?82%▲13.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?23%▼7.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?43%▼16.5Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?27%▲1.0Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than Gemini 3.5 Pro?91%▲73.7Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%▲4.5Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?26%▼4.0Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in August?17%▲1.4Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than Gemini 3.5 Pro?89%▲73.8Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?5%▲1.7Will Anthropic's market cap on the day of their IPO be above 2 trillion?57%▲10.3Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?75%▲4.0
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?14%▼32.0Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?67%▲7.6Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?18%▼12.3Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?86%▲0.6Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?82%▲13.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?23%▼7.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?43%▼16.5Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?27%▲1.0Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than Gemini 3.5 Pro?91%▲73.7Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%▲4.5Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?26%▼4.0Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in August?17%▲1.4Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than Gemini 3.5 Pro?89%▲73.8Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?5%▲1.7Will Anthropic's market cap on the day of their IPO be above 2 trillion?57%▲10.3Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?75%▲4.0
Home/Macro / Fed/Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-14?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 3h ago

Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-14?

Last traded probability
0.1%
-29.4 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.1%
Event deadline
August 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Venue status
closed
Resolution source
csl-china.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-08-14? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 14, 2026 at 12:05 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 14, 2026 at 2:36 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution

What this market actually measures

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 14, 2026 If Qingdao Xihaian FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 14, 2026 If Qingdao Xihaian FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Resolution source: csl-china.com

Market data

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

Settlement-stage — price is pinned near resolution. Read it as a settlement signal, not a fresh forecast.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity79

Depth of the order book and volume

Related markets

Will Apple stock go up?

16%YESTrust 2
ManifoldṀ251.7 24h

Ethereum Up or Down on August 14?

100%YESTrust 14
Polymarket$140.7K 24h

A National Mp publicly says Chris Luxon should go before end of Friday?

23%YESTrust 20
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
Data updated
3h ago

24h volume

$110.5K

Liquidity

$201.1K

Total volume

$110.5K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
7-day range
0.1% – 29.5%
Resolves
Aug 14, 2026
Resolution
csl-china.com

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+56
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Manifold
Ṁ2 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 14, 2026 at 3pm EDT?

48%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$1.1K 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 14, 2026 at 3pm EDT?

14%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$607 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 14, 2026 at 3pm EDT?

34%YESTrust 4
Kalshi$508 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]