US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?69%▲7.3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?28%▲6.0Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?24%▼20.5Iran leadership change by December 31?10%▼5.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 26?55%▲14.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?37%▲1.5Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?26%▼7.0Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?48%▼21.5Will Trump and Putin not meet?22%▼4.0US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?90%▲2.0Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 September 21-27?9%▼4.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?63%▼3.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?37%▲3.0Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?4%▼5.4Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?9%▼3.8Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 27?98%▲6.0
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 14m ago

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?

Final price
0.1%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 0.1%.

Final market price
0.1%
Event deadline
September 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Venue status
resolved
Resolution source
x.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? The final Polymarket price was 0.1%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 0.1%.

Market data as of
September 25, 2026 at 2:12 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 25, 2026 at 2:26 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
14m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 18 12:00 PM ET to September 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 18 12:00 PM ET to September 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution source: x.com

Market data

24h volume

$7.1K

Liquidity

$58K

Total volume

$114.9K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
Resolves
Sep 25, 2026
Resolution
x.com

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