Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 0.4%
- Event deadline
- September 6, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- open
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.4%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- September 6, 2026 at 8:23 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 6, 2026 at 8:29 PM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- September 6, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 7m ago
What this market actually measures
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election. If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market data
24h volume
$47.5K
Liquidity
$25.5K
Total volume
$80.9K
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.5 pts
- Best bid
- 0.2%
- Best ask
- 0.7%
- 7-day range
- 0.2% – 0.4%
- Resolves
- Sep 6, 2026