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The probability is essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.
Warsaw: Katarzyna Kawa vs Justina Mikulskyte The current Polymarket probability is 0.1%, essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as Stable with low confidence because the market has not traded recently, so the current price may lag events.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±14 pts.
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
This market refers to the tennis match between Katarzyna Kawa and Justina Mikulskyte in the Warsaw, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katarzyna Kawa' if Katarzyna Kawa advances against Justina Mikulskyte. This market will resolve to 'Justina Mikulskyte' if Justina Mikulskyte advances against Katarzyna Kawa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
STALE_PRICEStale priceEXPIRING_SOONResolving soonDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: stale price.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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