Will WTI crude oil close at or below $65 before October 1, 2026?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.8%.
- Final market price
- 1.8%
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will WTI crude oil close at or below $65 before October 1, 2026? The final Manifold price was 1.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.8%.
- Market data as of
- September 30, 2026 at 9:02 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 30, 2026 at 9:11 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 10m ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the front-month WTI crude oil continuous contract has a DAILY CLOSING (settlement) price at or below $65.00 per barrel on any trading day from market creation through Wednesday 2026-09-30 inclusive, according to MarketWatch crude oil continuous contract CL.1 (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1) historical data. Otherwise NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the front-month WTI crude oil continuous contract has a DAILY CLOSING (settlement) price at or below $65.00 per barrel on any trading day from market creation through Wednesday 2026-09-30 inclusive, according to MarketWatch crude oil continuous contract CL.1 (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1) historical data. Otherwise NO. Notes on resolution: (1) CLOSING price only - an intraday print at or below $65.00 that does not close there does NOT count. (2) At or below means
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ52.7
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ1.2K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 1.8%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026