US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?100%85.2Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?0%84.0Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?100%85.6US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?100%55.2Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?69%39.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?36%3.5Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?44%12.0Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?78%11.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?100%20.6US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?9%2.0Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?86%9.6Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September?80%6.9US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?68%4.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?100%6.2Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?4%1.8Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?25%5.0
PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 4m ago

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Market probability
99.7%
+6.2 percentage points
over 24 hours93.5%99.7%
100 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

Confirmed repricing; the market is settling at the new level.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (6.2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$26.1K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 6.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (93.5% 99.7%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 22, 4:53 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Probability by deadline

The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.

The market prices the Dec 31 and Mar 31 deadlines almost identically.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±17 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: meaningful

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 6.2 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
  • Flow one-directional across 72 participants (broad, not a single order)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
30Low
Where the price path tends to go next25 observed
  • Trend continuation41%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting22%
  • Stable consensus17%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$77.9K

Liquidity

$104K

Total volume

$468.3K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.2 pts
Best bid
99.6%
Best ask
99.8%
7-day range
91.5% – 99.8%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H-0.16H+6.224H+6.27D+6.2

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