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PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 5m ago

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10?

Market probability
0.1%
3.9 percentage points
over 24 hours4.1%0.1%
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: September 10, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (3.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$2.4K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 10, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 10, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on September 10, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Resolution source: pythdata.app

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 3.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (4.1% 0.2%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 10, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (pythdata.app)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 10, 3:37 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

  • Resolves in 0 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
30Low
Where the price path tends to go next354 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting90%
  • Trend continuation3%
  • Thin-liquidity spike3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$83.2K

Liquidity

$14K

Total volume

$0

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.2%
7-day range
0.1% – 4.1%
Resolves
Sep 10, 2026
Resolution
pythdata.app
Change (pts)1H-0.56H-3.924H-3.97D-3.9

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