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PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 6m ago

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?

Last traded probability
98.7%
+3.0 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
98.7%
Event deadline
September 6, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 98.7%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
September 6, 2026 at 8:03 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 6, 2026 at 8:08 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 6, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
6m ago

What this market actually measures

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Market data

24h volume

$61.5K

Liquidity

$20.7K

Total volume

$70.7K

Category
Politics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
Spread
1.4 pts
Best bid
98.0%
Best ask
99.4%
7-day range
95.7% – 98.9%
Resolves
Sep 6, 2026