Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 1.6%
- Event deadline
- August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- open
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 1.6%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- August 30, 2026 at 1:27 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- August 30, 2026 at 1:35 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- August 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 9m ago
What this market actually measures
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.