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The probability decreased by 12 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast reads this as thin-market noise rather than a genuine repricing.
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 4? The current Polymarket probability is 40.5%, down 12 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as a Likely Noise with medium confidence because the probability moved quickly in a short window.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±25 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
EXPIRING_SOONResolving soonFAST_MOVEMoving fastLOW_TRUST_MOVEBig move, weak backingDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: expiring soon.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by compound question.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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