Will the "RikuRyu" pair get divorced by the end of 2030?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Riku Miura and Ryuichi Kihara (the Japanese figure skating pair known as "RikuRyu") marry and subsequently legally divorce, dissolve, or annul their marriage on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC. This market resolves to NO if: They remain married as of December 31, 2030.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Riku Miura and Ryuichi Kihara (the Japanese figure skating pair known as "RikuRyu") marry and subsequently legally divorce, dissolve, or annul their marriage on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC. This market resolves to NO if: They remain married as of December 31, 2030. They do not marry on or before December 31, 2030 (including if they break off their engagement, remain engaged, or if either partner passes away before a legal marriage takes place). Sources & Verification: Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the couple's verified social media accounts—such as Ryuichi Kihara’s X account (@ryuichi_kihara), Riku Miura’s X account (@miurariku1217), or Riku Miura’s Instagram account (@riku9111)—or via reports from major Japanese and international news agencies (e.g., Kyodo News or Sponichi Annex). Background Riku Miura and Ryuichi Kihara, affectionately nicknamed "RikuRyu" by fans, are the 2026 Milan-Cortina Winter Olympic pairs figure skating champions. They made history as the first Japanese pairs team to win an Olympic medal. After sweeping numerous international titles, the duo announced their retirement from competitive skating in April 2026. On August 22, 2026, the couple publicly announced their personal engagement, shifting their highly celebrated on-ice partnership into a lifelong commitment off the ice.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2030 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 29, 10:16 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
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