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Home/Crypto/Will Solana reach $120 in August?
PolymarketCryptoUpdated 14m ago

Will Solana reach $120 in August?

Market probability
13.0%
+2.5 percentage points
over 24 hours10.5% → 13.0%
10 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread. The probability moved another 4.3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Unsettled

The probability moved another 4.3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$5.7K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT High prices available a…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance SOL/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 21, 11:43 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.

TrendingLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Trending

A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.

Change (pts)1H+4.36H+2.524H+2.57D+2.5
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

17/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: wide spread.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement88

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity66

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Directional drift sustained across 1h / 6h / 24h windows

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next24 observed
  • Thin-liquidity spike54%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting30%
  • Stable consensus6%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$69.6K

Liquidity

$48K

Total volume

$133.1K

Category
Crypto
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
7.1 pts
Best bid
9.4%
Best ask
16.5%
7-day range
6.7% – 13.0%
Resolves
Sep 1, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

17/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: wide spread.

  • Liquidity anchor+46
  • Price steadiness+4
  • Wide spread-15
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score17 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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