ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?57%▲12.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?81%▼3.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?14%▲5.3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲1.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?34%▲9.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?14%▲0.0Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?94%▲51.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?61%▼8.0Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?75%▲4.5Israel closes its airspace by September 30?10%▲5.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 2?91%▲2.0Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initial runs?74%▲21.1Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?17%▲1.0Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?58%▼0.4Fed rate hike in 2026?72%▼2.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?13%▲1.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?57%▲12.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?81%▼3.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?14%▲5.3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?60%▲1.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?34%▲9.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?14%▲0.0Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?94%▲51.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?61%▼8.0Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?75%▲4.5Israel closes its airspace by September 30?10%▲5.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 2?91%▲2.0Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initial runs?74%▲21.1Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?17%▲1.0Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?58%▼0.4Fed rate hike in 2026?72%▼2.5Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?13%▲1.6
Home/Macro / Fed/Will the LBMA Silver Price fix at or above $80/oz on any day in September 2026?
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 10m ago

Will the LBMA Silver Price fix at or above $80/oz on any day in September 2026?

Market probability
19.0%
−8 percentage points
over 24 hours27.0% → 19.0%
29 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 30, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

Medium

Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.

Recent trade activity$25 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 8.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (27.0% → 19.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 1, 1:43 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ39.4

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ39.4

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Change (pts)1H0.06H-8.024H-8.07D-8.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement84

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity45

Related markets

SpaceX closes above $170 at end of month?

21%YESTrust 2
ManifoldṀ230.9 24h

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

0%YESTrust 95
Polymarket$1.1M 24h

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

1%YESTrust 100
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Probability moved 8.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
1Low
Where the price path tends to go next700 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

—
Current probability
19.0%
7-day range
19.0% – 27.0%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

0/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+34
  • Price steadiness+5
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket$648.7K 24h

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

1%YESTrust 96
Polymarket$744.5K 24h

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

60%YESTrust 81
Polymarket$710.8K 24h

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

40%YESTrust 89
Polymarket$1.4M 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]