Market prices an 18.7% chance of “Will SpaceX outperform the Nasdaq Composite's total return in 2026” — down 1.5 points in 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will SpaceX outperform the Nasdaq Composite's total return in 2026?”
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
What this market actually measures
Will SPCX's price return, measured from its first-trade opening print on June 12, 2026 to the close on December 31, 2026, exceed the Nasdaq Composite price index (^IXIC) return over the same period?
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Will SPCX's price return, measured from its first-trade opening print on June 12, 2026 to the close on December 31, 2026, exceed the Nasdaq Composite price index (^IXIC) return over the same period?
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 5, 6:37 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ10
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume