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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 12m ago

Will my wife and I both (together or separately) visit Disneyland by August 28, 2028? (8/28/28)

Market probability
50.3%
Little changed over 24 hours
716 days until the event deadline
Deadline: August 29, 2028 at 2:59 AM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

Medium

Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.

Recent trade activity$10 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 29, 2028 at 2:59 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 12, 11:14 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
3Low
Where the price path tends to go next796 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ10

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ10

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
50.3%
7-day range
50.3% – 50.3%
Resolves
Aug 29, 2028
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0