Will Mistral AI release a model named "le chaton fat" by EOY 2026
Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 15, 3:29 AM ET
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How credible was the move?
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Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
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Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolve to yes if Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Mistral AI officially releases an artificial intelligence model under the name "Le Chaton Fat" (case-insensitive variations allowed). To qualify for a YES resolution, the release must meet the following criteria: Official Release: Mistral AI must make a functional AI model available to the public, ei…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolve to yes if Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Mistral AI officially releases an artificial intelligence model under the name "Le Chaton Fat" (case-insensitive variations allowed). To qualify for a YES resolution, the release must meet the following criteria: Official Release: Mistral AI must make a functional AI model available to the public, either via open-weight downloads, an API endpoint, or as a deployed chatbot/tool on their official platform. Official Announcement: The release must be verified through Mistral AI’s official channels, such as their website (https://mistral.ai), official blog, or verified social media accounts. Actual Model Required: Joke posts, social media banter, or simple easter eggs from Mistral AI founders or employees will not count unless accompanied by a functional, officially released AI model deployed under this name. If no such model is officially released by the deadline, the market resolves to NO. Background "Le Chaton Fat" ("The Fat Kitten") is a collective internet hoax and meme that went viral on X (formerly Twitter) and Reddit in June 2026. Satirizing AI benchmark hype, parameter counts, and EU regulations, users fabricated benchmarks for a fictional 30-trillion-parameter model. The name itself is a bilingual play on "Le Chat," Mistral AI’s conversational assistant that was rebranded to "Mistral Vibe" earlier in June 2026. While Mistral founders and employees have playfully engaged with the meme on social media, no such model exists. This market tracks whether Mistral AI will officially canonize the meme by releasing a real model under the name before the end of 2026. [image]
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 15, 3:46 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.