Will July 2026 U.S. building permits be at least 1.45 million (SAAR)?

Resolution

This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for July 2026 reports total privately-owned U.S. housing units authorized by building permits at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,450,000 or higher. Use the total United States building-permits SAAR value in the initial July 2026 New Residential Construction release. Resolve NO if that value is 1,449,000 or lower. Do not use housing starts, housing completions, new residential sales, single-family-only permits, multifamily-only permits, regional permits, not seasonally adjusted counts, year-over-year changes, or later annual revisions unless Census/HUD corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 New Residential Construction release is delayed, wait for the first Census/HUD release containing the July 2026 total building-permits SAAR value unless there is no such release by August 25, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2025_total_building_permits_saar": 1445000, "april_2026_housing_completions_saar": 1449000, "april_2026_housing_starts_saar": 1465000, "april_2026_mom_percent": 5.8, "april_2026_total_building_permits_saar": 1442000, "april_2026_yoy_percent": -0.2, "march_2026_revised_total_building_permits_saar": 1363000, "note": "May 2026 New Residential Construction was scheduled for June 16, 2026 and was not yet released at creation time.", "release": "Monthly New Residential Construction, April 2026"}, "metric": "Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits, total United States, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["May and June 2026 building-permits markets are prior-reference-month markets, not July 2026 duplicates.", "Housing-starts markets are not duplicates.", "Housing-completions markets are not duplicates.", "New-residential-sales markets are not duplicates.", "Single-family-only, multifamily-only, regional, unadjusted-count, or year-over-year permit markets are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "Census Survey of Construction lists July 2026 New Residential Construction for August 18, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for July 2026", "threshold_units": "1,450,000 housing units at SAAR"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census economic indicators calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census 2026 release schedule: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/2026-release-schedule-list-view.html - Census construction release schedule: https://www.census.gov/construction/soc/schedule.html - Census current New Residential Construction page: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html - Census current New Residential Construction PDF: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf