Loading dashboard…
Loading dashboard…
Loading market detail…
The probability is essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.
Will July 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month? The current Manifold probability is 47.3%, essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as Stable with medium confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for July 2026 reports that headline U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.5% or more month-over-month. Use the advance estimate for total retail and food services sales for July 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes. Resolve YES if the seasonally adjusted percent change from June 2026 to July 2026 is +0.5% or higher. Resolve NO if that change is +0.4% or lower. Do not use retail inventories, Monthly Retail Trade Report later-release figures, inflation-adjusted/real sales, CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-trade-only excluding food services, subsector rows, year-over-year change, or later annual revisions unless Census corrects the initial July 2026 advance retail-sales release before resolution. If the July 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report is delayed, wait for the first Census release of the July 2026 advance retail-sales figure unless there is no Census July 2026 advance retail-sales release by August 21, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_advance_sales": "$757.1 billion", "april_2026_mom": 0.5, "april_2026_yoy": 4.9, "june_2026_release_schedule": "June 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-07-16 at 08:30 Eastern.", "march_2026_mom_revised": 1.6, "may_2026_release_schedule": "May 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-06-17 at 08:30 Eastern.", "release": "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April 2026"}, "metric": "Headline U.S. retail and food services sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday/trading-day differences but not price changes, month-over-month from June 2026 to July 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["The existing May and June 2026 advance retail-sales markets are prior-reference-month markets, not July duplicates.", "Retail inventories, business inventories, CPI, PPI, PCE, payrolls, unemployment, and recession markets use different releases or criteria.", "Monthly Retail Trade Report sales/inventories later-release markets are not duplicates of the initial Advance Monthly Retail Trade release."], "release_schedule": "Census retail release schedule lists the July 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for 2026-08-14 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for July 2026", "threshold": "+0.5% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census retail release schedule: https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html - Census economic indicators schedule list: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census current Advance Monthly Retail Trade release: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf - Census retail program page: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]