Will July 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?

The probability decreased by 40.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast reads this as thin-market noise rather than a genuine repricing.

• ·Trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
• ·The probability moved quickly in a short window.
• ·The movement appears to come from limited trading activity rather than broad repricing.

Resolution

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for July 2026 reports that headline PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month. Use the all-items/headline PCE price index in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering July 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month. Resolve NO if the initial July 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative. Use BEA's reported rounded one-decimal percent change. Do not use core PCE excluding food and energy, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the July 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by September 3, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "future_releases_at_creation": "May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; July 2026 scheduled for 2026-08-26.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "PCE price index percent change from June 2026 to July 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May and June 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "July 2026 core PCE inflation excludes food and energy, while this market uses the headline/all-items PCE price index.", "July 2026 CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 for 2026-08-26 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for July 2026", "series": "Headline/all-items PCE price index", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}. Source preflight snapshot: {"checked_at": "2026-06-16T02:16:49Z", "urls": {"bea_april_2026_release": {"has_april_core_02": true, "has_april_pce_04": true, "has_personal_income_outlays_july_2026": false, "july_2026_schedule_row": null, "length": 51580, "ok": true, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026"}, "bea_core_pce_data": {"has_april_core_02": false, "has_april_pce_04": false, "has_personal_income_outlays_july_2026": false, "july_2026_schedule_row": null, "length": 43541, "ok": true, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy"}, "bea_pce_data": {"has_april_core_02": false, "has_april_pce_04": false, "has_personal_income_outlays_july_2026": false, "july_2026_schedule_row": null, "length": 41951, "ok": true, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index"}, "bea_schedule": {"has_april_core_02": false, "has_april_pce_04": false, "has_personal_income_outlays_july_2026": true, "july_2026_schedule_row": "August 26 8:30 AM N ews Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026", "length": 85391, "ok": true, "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule"}}}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026