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Home/Geopolitics/🚒 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 10m ago

Market prices a 24.0% chance of β€œπŸš’ Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026” β€” down 26 points in 24 hours

Original Manifold title: β€œπŸš’ Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?”

Market probability
24.0%
βˆ’26 percentage points
over 24 hours50.0% β†’ 24.0%
23 days until the event deadline
Deadline: August 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support β€” treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions β€” a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology β†’

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (26 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

Medium

Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.

Recent trade activity$68.4 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) β€” a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 26.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (50.0% β†’ 24.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 5:55 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals β€” these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low Β· expected error Β±30 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving β€” don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Market data

24h volume

αΉ€113.7

Liquidity

αΉ€100

Total volume

αΉ€0

Category
Change (pts)1H0.06H-26.024H-26.07D-26.0
Score breakdown β€” Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

0/ 100 Β· Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears β€” not what to trade.

Movement100

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity53

Related markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

13%YESTrust 98
Polymarket$431K 24h

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

9%YESTrust 48
Polymarket$22.5K 24h

Iran leadership change by August 31?

4%YESTrust 78
ProbCast β€” Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Probability moved 26.0 pts in ≀6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details β€” reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
1Low
Where the price path tends to go next711 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above β€” not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMediumΒ· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment β€” how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
β€”
Current probability
24.0%
7-day range
24.0% – 50.0%
Resolves
Aug 30, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

0/100 Β· Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+37
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score0 / 100
How these scores work β†’
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket
$238.6K 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

82%YESTrust 46
Polymarket$29.1K 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

1%YESTrust 92
Polymarket$226.7K 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

27%YESTrust 80
Polymarket$84.2K 24h
Macro / Fed
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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