Loading dashboard…
Loading dashboard…
Loading market detail…
The probability is essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. No meaningful probability movement was detected over the past 24 hours.
Will I write for >half the time that I read this month? The current Manifold probability is 48.1%, essentially unchanged over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as Stable with medium confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
I spend a good amount of time reading, sometimes books but also often Substack essays and LessWrong posts as well. I think this is overall good but can easily turn into a sort of productivity sink, where it feels like I'm doing something good/productive by reading yet another post but I'm not really getting anything out it. I'd like to write more and better organize my thoughts on a variety of topics, so that's why I'm making this market. In the next month I'll track my time reading and writing, and my goal is to write for at least half as much of the time that I read. At the moment I do fairly little writing (maybe <10% of the time I spend reading). I will not include taking basic notes while I read something to be "writing," although if I'm more carefully writing up counterarguments or analysis then I would count it as writing. If I'm actively writing a post about some topic, I will include research into that as part of my writing time as long as I feel it is directly part of the writing process. I won't include any sort of end-of-day journaling in my writing time. If I post something as a result of my writing, I'll probably link it in the comments! But I am not required to post any of my writing for this market to resolve YES. I will not trade on this market.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]