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Home/AI / Tech/Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 4m ago

Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?

Market probability
18.2%
−1.8 percentage points
over 24 hours20.0% → 18.2%
3047 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2034 at 7:00 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (1.8 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$10 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2034 at 7:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 28, 4:27 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ10

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ10

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Change (pts)1H0.06H-1.824H-1.87D-1.8
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

4/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement33

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity39

Related markets

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?

48%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$22.4 24h
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Price has not updated recently (stale)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
19Low
Where the price path tends to go next680 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~12h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

—
Current probability
18.2%
7-day range
18.2% – 20.0%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2034

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

4/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+31
  • Price steadiness+20
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
Trust score4 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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