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Home/Macro / Fed/EPL: Will Coventry City beat Hull City?
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 5m ago

EPL: Will Coventry City beat Hull City?

Market probability
54.9%
+2.9 percentage points
over 24 hours52.0% → 54.9%
3 days until the scheduled event
Deadline: August 29, 2026 at 9:57 AM ET
Resolution follows the outcome of the scheduled event.

A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (2.9 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$13 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Coventry City defeats Hull City in their Premier League match scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026. This market will resolve to NO if Hull City wins the match or if the match ends in a draw.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Coventry City defeats Hull City in their Premier League match scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026. This market will resolve to NO if Hull City wins the match or if the match ends in a draw. Key details: Official Source: The official match result will be verified using the Premier League Official Website or Flashscore. Format: Resolution is based on the final score at the end of regulation time (90 minutes plus injury/stoppage time). Rescheduling: If the match is postponed and not completed within 7 days of its originally scheduled date (by September 5, 2026), this market will resolve as N/A. Background Coventry City hosts Hull City at the Coventry Building Society Arena for Game Week 2 of the 2026/27 Premier League season. Both teams are newly promoted to the top flight. Coventry City, managed by Frank Lampard, opened their campaign with a 3-0 defeat away to Arsenal. Meanwhile, Hull City started their season with a 2-1 victory at home against Manchester United. This match marks Coventry's first home fixture of the new Premier League campaign. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

What could move this market next?

  • The scheduled event takes placeAugust 29, 2026 at 9:57 AM ET

    The contract resolves on the event's outcome.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 25, 3:24 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.

One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
One big trader

Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.

Market data

Change (pts)1H0.06H+2.924H+2.97D+2.9
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

7/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement48

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity42

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • One participant drove 77% of recent flow
  • Move not broadly confirmed (2 participants)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
4Low
Where the price path tends to go next726 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

24h volume

Ṁ13

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ13

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
54.9%
7-day range
52.0% – 56.5%
Resolves
Aug 29, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

7/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+31
  • Price steadiness+16
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score7 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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