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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 14m ago

Will any new england comic con events be cancelled in 2028?

Market probability
13.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
840 days until the qualification deadline
Latest eligible start date: December 31, 2028 at 4:00 AM ET
The market can resolve after this date while a qualifying period defined in the rules completes.

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if any comic convention event scheduled to take place in the New England region in 2028 is officially cancelled or postponed to 2029 (or later) prior to its scheduled start date. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if any comic convention event scheduled to take place in the New England region in 2028 is officially cancelled or postponed to 2029 (or later) prior to its scheduled start date. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. For the purposes of this market: "New England region" is defined as the states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. "Comic convention event" is defined as any public, multi-genre fan convention focused on comic books, pop culture, cosplay, and related media that contains "Comic Con", "Comic-Con", "Comiccon", "Comicon", or "Expo" (where primary focus is comic books/pop culture) in its official name (such as Fan Expo Boston, Rhode Island Comic Con, Granite State Comic Con/Granitecon, Wicked Comic Con, Kids Con New England, RI Anime Con, Terrificon, and Southern New England Comic Con). "Cancelled" means the scheduled event is officially called off, suspended, or postponed beyond the calendar year 2028 by its organizers. Exclusions: Postponing or moving dates/venues within the calendar year 2028 does not count as a cancellation. The cancellation of single panels, individual days of a multi-day event, or pre-announced guests does not count as a cancellation of the event, provided the main event still runs for at least one of its scheduled days. Sources of Truth: Resolutions will be verified using official announcements from the respective event's website or official social media channels, or reporting from reliable comic/convention directories such as Convention Scene or The Comic Convention List. If no qualifying events are scheduled or held in 2028, this market will resolve to NO. Background The New England region hosts several popular comic book and pop culture conventions annually. Prominent examples include Fan Expo Boston (formerly Boston Comic Con), Rhode Island Comic Con, Terrificon (held at Mohegan Sun in Connecticut), Granitecon (Granite State Comic Con in New Hampshire), and independent gatherings like Wicked Comic Con and Kids Con New England. This market tracks whether any such scheduled gatherings in 2028 face complete cancellation or postponement to a future year, which can occur due to venue renovations, financial difficulties, or logistical challenges.

What could move this market next?

  • The latest eligible start date passesDecember 31, 2028 at 4:00 AM ET

    After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.

  • Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules

    Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 12, 12:19 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
13Low
Where the price path tends to go next597 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ0

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
13.0%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2028
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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