Will any new england comic con events be cancelled in 2028?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if any comic convention event scheduled to take place in the New England region in 2028 is officially cancelled or postponed to 2029 (or later) prior to its scheduled start date. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if any comic convention event scheduled to take place in the New England region in 2028 is officially cancelled or postponed to 2029 (or later) prior to its scheduled start date. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. For the purposes of this market: "New England region" is defined as the states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. "Comic convention event" is defined as any public, multi-genre fan convention focused on comic books, pop culture, cosplay, and related media that contains "Comic Con", "Comic-Con", "Comiccon", "Comicon", or "Expo" (where primary focus is comic books/pop culture) in its official name (such as Fan Expo Boston, Rhode Island Comic Con, Granite State Comic Con/Granitecon, Wicked Comic Con, Kids Con New England, RI Anime Con, Terrificon, and Southern New England Comic Con). "Cancelled" means the scheduled event is officially called off, suspended, or postponed beyond the calendar year 2028 by its organizers. Exclusions: Postponing or moving dates/venues within the calendar year 2028 does not count as a cancellation. The cancellation of single panels, individual days of a multi-day event, or pre-announced guests does not count as a cancellation of the event, provided the main event still runs for at least one of its scheduled days. Sources of Truth: Resolutions will be verified using official announcements from the respective event's website or official social media channels, or reporting from reliable comic/convention directories such as Convention Scene or The Comic Convention List. If no qualifying events are scheduled or held in 2028, this market will resolve to NO. Background The New England region hosts several popular comic book and pop culture conventions annually. Prominent examples include Fan Expo Boston (formerly Boston Comic Con), Rhode Island Comic Con, Terrificon (held at Mohegan Sun in Connecticut), Granitecon (Granite State Comic Con in New Hampshire), and independent gatherings like Wicked Comic Con and Kids Con New England. This market tracks whether any such scheduled gatherings in 2028 face complete cancellation or postponement to a future year, which can occur due to venue renovations, financial difficulties, or logistical challenges.
What could move this market next?
- The latest eligible start date passesDecember 31, 2028 at 4:00 AM ET
After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.
- Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules
Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 12, 12:19 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 13.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2028