Will 10 or more countries have elected artificial candidates to political offices by 2036?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2035, at least 10 different countries have elected an artificial candidate to a public political office. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2035, at least 10 different countries have elected an artificial candidate to a public political office. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. For the purposes of this market: "Elected" means winning a seat in a public, representative election (at the municipal, regional, or national level) where voters cast ballots. Appointed roles (such as Albania's 2025 appointment of the AI chatbot "Diella" to a ministerial post) do not count as "elected". "Artificial candidate" is defined as an AI chatbot, artificial neural network, expert system, virtual avatar, or robot officially running for office. "Country" is defined as any sovereign state that is a member of the United Nations, plus Taiwan, Kosovo, and Palestine. "Political office" includes seats in national parliaments/congresses, municipal or city councils, mayoralties, or heads of state. Source of Truth: Resolution will be based on reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, Deutsche Welle) or official national election commission websites. Note: The creator may edit the target resolution date of December 31, 2035, if they prefer a different timeframe. Background The concept of the "virtual politician" has rapidly transitioned from a novelty to actual election ballots. In 2024, the UK saw "AI Steve" run for parliament, while Cheyenne, Wyoming, hosted a mayoral run by "VIC" (Virtual Integrated Citizen). In March 2026, Colombia saw its first AI-driven congressional candidate, "Gaitana IA," run for an Indigenous seat. While some governments have begun incorporating AI into appointed executive structures—most notably Albania appointing the virtual avatar "Diella" as its Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence in September 2025—AI candidates have yet to win popular elections on a significant scale. This market tracks whether AI-led or AI-mediated candidacies will successfully win public office across at least 10 distinct countries. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2035 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 18, 8:09 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ62.8
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 28.1%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2035