ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 1?52%▼26.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 1?21%▼35.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 1?2%▼9.6Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?85%▲21.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?46%▲6.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?56%▲4.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?19%▲13.7Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?24%▲4.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?42%▼5.0Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?23%▼3.4Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?33%▼5.0Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?7%▼6.2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?7%▼1.9Rogue AIs before 2028?53%▼10.0Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%▲2.5Will apple change Lake Ontario to lake America anywhere in the world?74%▼18.0
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 1?52%▼26.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 1?21%▼35.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 1?2%▼9.6Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?85%▲21.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?46%▲6.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?56%▲4.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?19%▲13.7Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?24%▲4.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?42%▼5.0Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?23%▼3.4Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?33%▼5.0Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?7%▼6.2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?7%▼1.9Rogue AIs before 2028?53%▼10.0Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%▲2.5Will apple change Lake Ontario to lake America anywhere in the world?74%▼18.0
Home/Crypto/Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH more than 291.1471 USDC on Base by September 7th 11:59 pm UTC
ManifoldCryptoUpdated 6m ago

Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH more than 291.1471 USDC on Base by September 7th 11:59 pm UTC

Market probability
1.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
5 days until the event deadline
Deadline: September 7, 2026 at 7:58 AM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$38K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 7, 2026 at 7:58 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 1, 8:18 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ38K

Liquidity

Ṁ10K

Total volume

Ṁ38K

Category
Crypto
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

26/ 100 · Low

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

Settlement-stage — price is pinned near resolution. Read it as a settlement signal, not a fresh forecast.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Related markets

Bitcoin price reaches 80k USD by the end of September

87%YESTrust 12
ManifoldṀ184.9 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

3%YESTrust 90
Polymarket$125.1K 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

1%YESTrust 61
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Price has not updated recently (stale)

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
37Low
Where the price path tends to go next483 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting92%
  • Thin-liquidity spike3%
  • Stable consensus3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Current probability
1.0%
7-day range
1.0% – 1.0%
Resolves
Sep 7, 2026
Liquidity70

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

26/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+53
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score26 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket$48.9K 24h

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

2%YESTrust 82
Polymarket$91.5K 24h

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

4%YESTrust 55
Polymarket$48.8K 24h

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

1%YESTrust 64
Polymarket$21.5K 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]