Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
10.5K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
53.9 mana
Total volume
34.8K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Rogue AIs before 2028?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 3:11 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 73.5% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 53.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10.5K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
73.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
9%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
74
Trades
135
over 43 days
Largest order
1K mana
11.7K mana traded across these 135 trades (last 43 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$11.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028? The spirit of this question is trying to operationalize AI agents "escaping the box" and becoming free.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028? The spirit of this question is trying to operationalize AI agents "escaping the box" and becoming free. I'll try to resolve in this spirit. Deliberate release of rogue AIs would still count. Note that this condition doesn't necessarily require AI agents to exfiltrate their own weights.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 3:18 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
23Low
Where the price path tends to go next1166 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting98%
- Stable consensus1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-0.17D-0.1
Related markets
Will 2027 be the hottest year on record
61%YESTrust 14
Manifold2.1K mana 24h
Will a criminal investigation into OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach be publicly confirmed before 2028?
29%YESTrust 42
Manifold122.2 mana 24h
Will Anthropic's market cap on the day of their IPO be above 2 trillion?
62%YESTrust 43
Manifold52 mana 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
12%YESTrust 87
Polymarket$53.4K 24h
Iran leadership change by December 31?
13%YESTrust 63
Polymarket$41.6K 24h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
12%YESTrust 60
Polymarket$35.1K 24h